The 2010 election was a referendum on the Affordable Care Act as the coming election and Supreme Court Session will be. The 2010 Pennsylvania the Senate race between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey was a contrast on economic issues. It was won by Toomey with 51% of the vote. In the CNN exit poll health care was the 2nd most important issue for PA voters behind the economy. The table below shows how the voters went for the issues and candidates in the exit poll.
| Important Issue |
Sestak
|
Toomey
|
War in Afghanistan (7%)
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Health Care (22%)
|
56%
|
44%
|
Economy (63%)
|
43%
|
57%
|
Illegal Immigration (5%)
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
When the voters were asked specifically about the health care law (but not Single Payer) the voters broke down this way. Note even in this election those who liked the law plus those who wanted it expanded out number those who wanted it repealed. It wasn't asked how many voters were uninsured.
What Should Congress Do With
New Health Care Law?
|
Sestak
|
Toomey
|
Expand It (35%)
|
88%
|
12%
|
Leave It As Is (17%)
|
70%
|
30%
|
Repeal It (45%)
|
10%
|
90%
|
There is no county level exit poll data for Pennsylvania but I can correlate the percentage of the vote for Toomey in each county and the corresponding % uninsured. The relationship shown above while statistically significant is not as strong as the ones discussed in my previous post, accounting for 6.9% of the variability. Philadelphia is a strong outlier where Toomey had 16% of the vote and the county had 16.3% uninsured.
One should not assume that the uninsured were likely to vote for Toomey outside of Philadelphia. I am unaware of voter turnout rates in the uninsured. The graph above suggests that a higher percentage of Toomey voters are more likely to be found in counties with higher percentages of uninsured (outside of Philadelphia). Other variables are more strongly correlated with the % uninsured, such as % rural and % illiterate and explain this relationship better. There was no relationship between the % illiterate and the % of vote for Toomey in PA counties.
I would've made a great exit poll question to see how many Toomey voters were uninsured.
I would've made a great exit poll question to see how many Toomey voters were uninsured.
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