Friday, June 22, 2012

Healthcare Polls in Anticipation of SCOTUS Decision

With the political class anxiously awaiting the Supreme Court's (SCOTUS for short) decision on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as if it were an endless Christmas night (Healthcare 4 All PA has prepared official responses for the possible ways in which it may rule).  There has been a flurry of new polls on the act summarized below from the website Real Clear Politics:

Polling Data

PollDateSampleFor/Favor Against/Oppose Spread
RCP Average4/5 - 6/18--38.649.4Against/Oppose +10.8
Associated Press/GfK6/14 - 6/181007 A3347Against/Oppose +14
Rasmussen Reports6/9 - 6/101000 LV3953Against/Oppose +14
Reuters/Ipsos6/7 - 6/111099 A4544For/Favor +1
CBS News/NY Times5/31 - 6/3976 A3448Against/Oppose +14
CNN/Opinion Research5/29 - 5/311009 A4351Against/Oppose +8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl4/13 - 4/171000 A3645Against/Oppose +9
Quinnipiac4/11 - 4/172577 RV3851Against/Oppose +13
FOX News4/9 - 4/11910 RV4053Against/Oppose +13
ABC News/Wash Post4/5 - 4/81003 A3953Against/Oppose +14

The polls generally state public opposition when they are averaged together in the top row of the table above.  Obviously these polls cover a long time frame from April to June, the period of the court's deliberation.  The sample sizes are given in the next column with the letters stating from which population it was taken.  A means general American public, RV means registered voters, and LV (in the Rasmussen poll) means likely voters in the next election, the most biased of the three sample types aboveAmong other factors, the way in which the sample of a poll or survey is selected can bias it's results.

With the exception of the Reuters/Ipsos poll, all of the ones above show at least an 8 point spread against the ACA which would be outside the margin of error so we can be confident that that is the way that the US population feels about the law.  Clicking on the link above for each of the polls will take you to the summary report for the poll.  For the Reuters poll there is a 45-44 split which is within the margin of error (+/- 3%).  The poll does ask a further question of those who oppose the law if it goes too far or does not go far enough.  Of those who are asked this question, there is a 22-68% split for those who say it does not go far enough relative to those who say it does.  When that 22% is added to the 45% who support the bill there is a 54-44% split in favor of universal healthcare like the ACA or stronger.  The CNN poll has found a consistent pattern for the last two years.  When combining those who oppose the ACA because it is not liberal enough with those who support it they find a 56-34% split in favor relative to those who oppose it because it is too liberal. Neither poll probes what 'not liberal enough' or 'not far enough' means.

The other polls do not ask similar questions.   The AP poll does ask if SCOTUS overturns the ACA what Congress should do and found that 77% want them to work on a new law.  Of course single payer was not mentioned in any of these polls or surveys but there does seem to be a receptiveness in the public to stronger reforms of the health care system.  The challenge now will be to get the message out.

**Update**

The Nation magazine has produced a graphic which illustrates part of what I wrote above.


**Related Posts**

Health Care Law - New Rasmussen Poll Down the Memory Hole

 

POLL: Dislike of healthcare law crosses party lines, 1 in 4 Dems want repeal - TheHill.com (But Doesn't Ask Why) 

 

The US and Republicans Want Health Care Law Repealed....?

 

Pearl Korn: With the Affordable Care Act Hanging by a Thread, It's Time for Single-Payer

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