More Media Coverage of the Sen.Ferlo Press Conference

Here is coverage from the Harrisburg CBS affiliate.



An online article from Pittsburgh's NPR affiliate can be read here.  You can see another video of the press conference on Senator Ferlo's website at:

http://www.senatorferlo.com/contusvideo?vid=38

More media coverage to come as a Kaiser Family Foundation poll shows that confusion still reigns among the American Public over the Affordable Care Act on the third anniversary of its passage and Governor Corbett continues to refuse to expand Medicaid of  which 78% of the public continues to be unaware.  Nationally 52% of the public favors expanding Medicaid which is about the same percentage which favors a stronger health care law.  The numbers do differ across party lines.

	National 2012 N=5,043	Pennsylvania 2012 N=1,019	Pennsylvania 2010 N=2,627 (tot. sample)
Expand  or keep it the same	44%	51%	52%
Repeal some or all of it	48%	46%	45%
Margin of Error (+/-)	1%	3%	2%

Via: The Advisory Board Company

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Pennsylvania Voters Want a Better Health Care Law

Pennsylvania Voters Want a Better Health Care Law

Exit polls are a wealth of information on the thinking of the voters in an election.  For this year's election all of the networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, and AP) used the same exit poll to save money with a national sample of 26,517.  The methodology for the exit poll can be read here.  There were some questions left blank on the survey, particularly the later issue questions such as the ones for the one for the health care law "What should happen to the health care law?".  Nationally only 5,043 completed that question which was late on the questionnaire.  Above I linked to the ABC news page for the exit poll which shows the sample size for each question and how they voted for each candidate.

For Pennsylvania there was a total sample of 2,908 in the exit poll.  Of the this sample, 1,019 responded to the health care law which is 20.2% of the total responses to this question.  The table below shows that a different pattern emerges for the question in the national responses compared to Pennsylvania. 

	National 2012 N=5,043	Pennsylvania 2012 N=1,019	Pennsylvania 2010 N=2,627 (tot. sample)
Expand  or keep it the same	44%	51%	52%
Repeal some or all of it	48%	46%	45%
Margin of Error (+/-)	1%	3%	2%

According to the national exit poll it would seem that a plurality of voters would like some or all of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) repealed but only 19% of the total sample responded to the question.  This only a problem if the responders are similar to the population as a whole.  That this result is not consistent with other national polls which were done around the time of the Supreme Court interpretation found a similar split to the Pennsylvania result. 

For the Pennsylvania exit poll, a slight majority of respondents believed the ACA should be expanded or kept the same.  This result is the same as the 2010 exit poll from the Senate race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak.  That year was considered a landslide for Republicans.  35% of the total state sample responded to this question as well as other question suggests either that this and other issues resonate more with this state's voters or that there is a sampling issue in other states.  Regardless these results suggest that there is still fertile ground for health care activists in Pennsylvania among the electorate.

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Healthcare Poll Insanity

Last Friday I did a post on the PUSH site showing how healthcare polling has remained consistent in the weeks leading up to the Supreme Court's Decision on the Affordable Care Act.  Last night I came across a tweet by Michele Bachmann stating:

MicheleBachmann ‏@MicheleBachmann 18 Jun 83% of surveyed doctors considering leaving medical industry if #Obamacare is fully implemented tiny.cc/lqt3fw #tcot

The tweet was retweeted by 130 of her 137,300 followers and favorited by 12.  These followers have hundreds to thousands who can pass this on to their followers.  This is what is meant by going viral.

I did follow the tiny.cc link above to the report and found that it came from the Doctor Patient Medical Association which faxed or mailed 16,227 forms to doctors nationwide and 4.3% were returned or a total of 699.  I have worked on mail surveys of physicians and getting a large response rate can be a problem unlike phone surveys.  Mail in surveys are cheaper than phone but incentives are often needed to increase response rates.  Even with a small incentive a response rate of 25% is typical.  Small response rates may not be a problem if those who respond are representative of those who did not.  For this poll, with a response rate that low it may be hard to justify that it is representative.  They do provide demographics but do not compare it to national physician demographics. 

It's so tempting to jump to conclusions on research findings when it's supports what one already believes.  It's tempting to rip on congresswoman Bachmann because of her past statements, as Jon Stewart does below.  I'll stick to this statement and her comment above.  Others who haven't made as many outrageous statements can just as easily make the same mistake without reading the results more carefully.  This is also meant to show the power and peril of social media like Facebook and Twitter. . Remember the hysteria caused by Sarah Palin's death panels post on Facebook? How many people still believe her?

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

**Update**


Sarah Palin has resurrected her 'death panels' claim on her Facebook page to her 3.4 million followers.  It has been shared by 369 and "liked" by 1,479 since being posted on Monday.  The LA Times debunks it here.



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Healthcare Polls in Anticipation of SCOTUS Decision

With the political class anxiously awaiting the Supreme Court's (SCOTUS for short) decision on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as if it were an endless Christmas night (Healthcare 4 All PA has prepared official responses for the possible ways in which it may rule).  There has been a flurry of new polls on the act summarized below from the website Real Clear Politics:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	For/Favor	Against/Oppose	Spread
RCP Average	4/5 - 6/18	--	38.6	49.4	Against/Oppose +10.8
Associated Press/GfK	6/14 - 6/18	1007 A	33	47	Against/Oppose +14
Rasmussen Reports	6/9 - 6/10	1000 LV	39	53	Against/Oppose +14
Reuters/Ipsos	6/7 - 6/11	1099 A	45	44	For/Favor +1
CBS News/NY Times	5/31 - 6/3	976 A	34	48	Against/Oppose +14
CNN/Opinion Research	5/29 - 5/31	1009 A	43	51	Against/Oppose +8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	4/13 - 4/17	1000 A	36	45	Against/Oppose +9
Quinnipiac	4/11 - 4/17	2577 RV	38	51	Against/Oppose +13
FOX News	4/9 - 4/11	910 RV	40	53	Against/Oppose +13
ABC News/Wash Post	4/5 - 4/8	1003 A	39	53	Against/Oppose +14

The polls generally state public opposition when they are averaged together in the top row of the table above.  Obviously these polls cover a long time frame from April to June, the period of the court's deliberation.  The sample sizes are given in the next column with the letters stating from which population it was taken.  A means general American public, RV means registered voters, and LV (in the Rasmussen poll) means likely voters in the next election, the most biased of the three sample types above.  Among other factors, the way in which the sample of a poll or survey is selected can bias it's results.

With the exception of the Reuters/Ipsos poll, all of the ones above show at least an 8 point spread against the ACA which would be outside the margin of error so we can be confident that that is the way that the US population feels about the law.  Clicking on the link above for each of the polls will take you to the summary report for the poll.  For the Reuters poll there is a 45-44 split which is within the margin of error (+/- 3%).  The poll does ask a further question of those who oppose the law if it goes too far or does not go far enough.  Of those who are asked this question, there is a 22-68% split for those who say it does not go far enough relative to those who say it does.  When that 22% is added to the 45% who support the bill there is a 54-44% split in favor of universal healthcare like the ACA or stronger.  The CNN poll has found a consistent pattern for the last two years.  When combining those who oppose the ACA because it is not liberal enough with those who support it they find a 56-34% split in favor relative to those who oppose it because it is too liberal. Neither poll probes what 'not liberal enough' or 'not far enough' means.

The other polls do not ask similar questions.   The AP poll does ask if SCOTUS overturns the ACA what Congress should do and found that 77% want them to work on a new law.  Of course single payer was not mentioned in any of these polls or surveys but there does seem to be a receptiveness in the public to stronger reforms of the health care system.  The challenge now will be to get the message out.

**Update**

The Nation magazine has produced a graphic which illustrates part of what I wrote above.

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Commentators noted how President Obama "hit a home run" with last weeks State of the Union address.  Little notice was the lack of mention of health care in the address.  The issue only received 44 words or 0.6% of the speech compared to 224 or 3.2% last year, 570 words or 7.8% in 2010, and 427 or 7.2% in 2009.  This is surprising as the Affordable Care Act is supposedly one of the President's proudest accomplishments.  An analysis of the address can be read here.

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There was also little mention of the issue in Mitch Daniels response to the address, while it is still often discussed on the campaign trail.  While polls have shown that the law is unpopular only a few have asked why it is unpopular.  These polls mostly have asked if the law is "too liberal" or "not liberal enough."  I have not found any mainstream media polls that mention single payer while some have mentioned the public option.  These posts are summarized below.

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