Saturday, September 7, 2013

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) having little effect on PA's Uninsured Rate So Far


As I said in my last post the new Small Area Health Insurance Estimates are out for every county in the US.  The overall trend for the state can be seen below since 2008 for those between the ages of 18 and 65.  The change in the rate has leveled off from 2010 to 2011 as parts of the ACA or Obamacare have come into effect like letting parents keep their kids on their insurance until age 26.






Year
Uninsured %
Uninsured MOE
2008
10.6
.2
2009
11.7
.2
2010
12.1
.2
2011
12.0
.2


The top 10 counties in the state are presented below and blow that the rates for the top 10 in 2010 are shown.  I added a map to show there they are located.  While there is hardly any change in the rates for Philadelphia there is some decrease for the other counties which are mostly within the margin of error (MOE).  Counties with larger populations have larger MOE's.
county
% Uninsured 2011
MOE Uninsured 2011 (+/- %)
1
Philadelphia
16.30
.20
2
Mifflin
14.90
1.40
3
Snyder
14.90
1.30
4
Crawford
14.80
1.20
5
Franklin
14.60
1.20
6
Juniata
14.40
1.30
7
Monroe
14.40
1.10
8
Perry
14.40
.70
9
Sullivan
14.30
1.40
10
Bedford
14.30
1.20




Portions of the ACA have been implemented with full implementation originally scheduled for next year but other portions of it such as the employer mandate delayed.  It still remains to be seen what impact full implementation will have on the state and the rest of the nation.  Below is a table with all 67 counties in alphabetical order plus the state rate at the top from 2008-2011 so you can see how your county's rate has changes over this period.  I added the MOE for 2011 for comparison purposes.





county
% Uninsured 2008
% Uninsured 2009
% Uninsured 2010
% Uninsured 2011
MOE Uninsured 2011 (+/- %)
Pennsylvania
10.60
11.70
12.10
12.00
.20
Adams
11.60
12.40
12.40
12.50
1.00
Allegheny
9.10
10.40
10.40
10.30
.60
Armstrong
12.20
11.80
12.10
12.10
1.00
Beaver
9.70
9.90
10.20
10.90
.90
Bedford
12.80
12.80
14.40
14.30
1.20
Berks
10.40
12.40
12.40
12.70
.80
Blair
10.30
11.80
12.20
11.20
1.00
Bradford
11.60
12.90
13.80
13.40
1.10
Bucks
7.60
8.00
8.80
8.70
.60
Butler
8.70
9.80
9.70
9.60
.80
Cambria
11.10
12.10
12.00
11.20
.90
Cameron
12.50
13.00
13.10
12.40
1.30
Carbon
11.60
11.90
13.40
12.40
1.20
Centre
10.60
11.20
12.60
11.80
1.20
Chester
7.90
8.50
9.50
9.50
.70
Clarion
12.70
13.60
13.80
13.50
1.30
Clearfield
12.60
13.50
13.20
12.70
1.10
Clinton
11.50
12.60
13.40
13.80
1.30
Columbia
11.30
11.90
12.00
11.90
1.10
Crawford
13.20
14.10
14.60
14.80
1.20
Cumberland
9.30
9.90
9.70
9.70
.80
Dauphin
10.20
11.80
11.70
11.70
.90
Delaware
9.10
10.00
10.90
10.20
.70
Elk
9.90
10.70
10.80
11.30
1.10
Erie
11.00
11.30
11.90
12.50
.90
Fayette
12.10
13.80
13.50
13.30
1.10
Forest
13.40
15.10
14.20
13.90
1.40
Franklin
12.80
13.80
14.00
14.60
1.20
Fulton
12.90
13.30
13.30
12.90
1.20
Greene
10.90
13.10
11.30
11.10
1.10
Huntingdon
12.80
15.30
12.30
12.70
1.10
Indiana
12.00
13.70
13.90
12.50
1.10
Jefferson
12.10
12.70
14.20
13.90
1.20
Juniata
13.60
14.30
15.60
14.40
1.30
Lackawanna
10.20
11.10
12.60
12.20
1.00
Lancaster
13.20
13.90
14.40
14.20
.90
Lawrence
12.10
11.90
12.70
12.30
1.00
Lebanon
11.60
11.70
12.10
11.10
1.00
Lehigh
11.60
12.00
12.80
13.30
.90
Luzerne
10.40
11.40
12.90
12.50
.90
Lycoming
10.70
12.40
12.60
13.50
1.10
McKean
10.30
12.90
12.40
11.90
1.10
Mercer
10.70
11.90
12.10
12.00
1.00
Mifflin
12.90
14.50
15.80
14.90
1.40
Monroe
12.20
12.50
13.40
14.40
1.10
Montgomery
7.30
8.00
8.10
8.40
.60
Montour
7.90
10.00
10.00
10.50
1.10
Northampton
9.80
11.40
11.10
11.10
.80
Northumberland
12.10
13.30
13.30
13.00
1.10
Perry
12.90
12.10
14.20
14.40
.70
Philadelphia
13.80
16.30
16.50
16.30
.20
Pike
12.40
11.50
13.60
13.10
1.10
Potter
11.30
13.10
14.40
13.70
1.30
Schuylkill
10.70
12.10
12.00
12.30
1.00
Snyder
12.40
15.10
14.00
14.90
1.30
Somerset
13.30
14.10
15.00
13.90
1.10
Sullivan
15.60
14.80
15.90
14.30
1.40
Susquehanna
12.70
13.40
14.80
14.00
1.20
Tioga
12.70
14.70
14.70
14.20
1.20
Union
13.70
16.70
13.70
12.30
1.20
Venango
10.90
12.40
12.90
12.30
1.10
Warren
10.00
11.90
12.40
12.70
1.10
Washington
10.70
10.10
10.70
10.70
.80
Wayne
13.20
13.20
14.80
13.50
1.20
Westmoreland
9.90
10.10
10.50
10.20
.70
Wyoming
11.00
11.30
11.30
11.80
1.10
York
10.30
10.20
11.10
11.70
.80


**Related Posts**


National, State, & County Uninsured Estimates



Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

2 comments:

  1. Lloyd StiresSeptember 7, 2013 at 7:28 PM

    The only part of the ACA that I would expect to affect the % uninsured during this time frame was the one you mentioned--adult dependent coverage to age 26, which took effect in 2010, but probably occurred gradually in 2010-2011 as people gradually learned to take advantage of it.

    Larger declines in the % uninsured should occur in 2014, as they phase in guaranteed issue, the individual mandate, and cost-sharing subsidies. Even this change will be modest, however, without Medicaid expansion (cancelled by Corbett) and the employer mandate (postponed by Obama).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CSI without Dead BodiesSeptember 7, 2013 at 9:16 PM

      I agree that larger decreases should occur after full implementation. Whatever decreases that occurred due to the age 26 provision may have been canceled out due to decreases in income and a stagnant job market as I argued in my previous post.

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)